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OCTOBER 31,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

CURIOSER AND CURIOSER – The most baffling question of the day are the statements of support for FBI Director James Comey from President Obama and Vice President Biden...at the same time that Hillary Clinton is bashing him, and her flunkies are calling for his banishment.  What's going on here?  Do Obama and Biden know something that would compel them to keep a sudden distance from Clinton?  Are they fed up with the constant scandals of Clinton, Inc.?  If Clinton is elected next week, and the FBI probe into the newly discovered e-mails turns up something really grim, Obama may have to pardon the new president.  Trump is calling this a Constitutional crisis, and he may be right.

TOUGH RUSSIANS – FROM LONDON'S EXPRESS:   A senior Russian diplomat has warned Norway it is now on the Kremlin's list of potential nuclear targets after it granted the US permission to base 300 marines on its soil.   Cold War tensions between Moscow and Washington erupted last week after Washington revealed plans to station the elite commandos in Norway.  Frants Klintsevitsj, a deputy chairman of Russia's defence and security committee, gave a furious response to the deployment.  In a chilling threat at the peace-loving Scandinavians, he warned: "This is very dangerous for Norway and Norwegians."  He continued: "How should we react to this? We have never before had Norway on the list of targets for our strategic weapons. But if this develops, Norway's population will suffer.  We need to react against definitive military threats. And we have things to react to, I might as well tell it like it is."  Americans seem unaware that a new Cold War has started.  The Russians are not shrinking, they are building.  Obama's weakness has made this possible.

MORE TRUMP PROGRESS – FROM THE HILL:   Donald Trump owns a slim 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire with eight days to go until Election Day, according to a new poll.  Trump tops Clinton 45 percent to 43 percent with the Granite State’s likely voters in the New Hampshire Journal/Inside Sources survey out Monday.  Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson grabs 4 percent, followed by Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein’s 2 percent.  Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin registers at 1 percent, while 2 percent prefer another candidate and 4 percent are undecided.  Trump’s lead shrinks to 1 point, however, in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee.  Little by little, Trump is picking up support in highly contested states.  The question is whether he will run out of time.  The election is next week.

October 31,  2016     Permalink

JOURNALISTIC CORRUPTION, PLAIN AND SIMPLE – AT 1:14 P.M. ET:  It doesn't get clearer than this.  And we know about it only because of Wikileaks.  It doesn't take too much imagination to speculate on what we don't know.  From Fox:

Another leaked email has emerged showing Democratic National Committee boss and former CNN contributor Donna Brazile sharing a debate question in advance with the Hillary Clinton campaign -- despite Brazile's persistent claims to the contrary.

CNN announced in a statement soon after the email became public Monday that Brazile had tendered her resignation and the network accepted it on Oct. 14, days after the controversy over Brazile tipping off the Clinton campaign initially broke.

According to documents released Monday by WikiLeaks, Brazile sent Clinton Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri an email titled, “One of the questions directed to HRC tomorrow is from a woman with a rash,” the night before the March 6 CNN primary debate in Flint, Mich.

“Her family has lead poison and she will ask what, if anything, will Hillary do as president to help the ppl of Flint,” Brazile wrote.

The following night, Lee-Anne Walters, a mom whose twin boys stopped growing and whose daughter lost her hair during the Flint water contamination crisis, posed a question to both Clinton, the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, and her primary opponent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

“After my family, the city of Flint and the children in D.C. were poisoned by lead, will you make a personal promise to me right now that, as president, in your first 100 days in office, you will make it a requirement that all public water systems must remove all lead service lines throughout the entire United States, and notification made to the — the citizens that have said service lines?” Walters asked.

And...

Brazile had been under fire over an earlier email chain appearing to show her tipping off the campaign before a town hall event later that same month. That exchange began with Brazile sending Palmieri the text of a question about the death penalty in an email with the subject line: “From time to time I get the questions in advance.”

After Palmieri responded, Brazile wrote back: “I’ll send a few more.”

Roland Martin asked the death penalty question verbatim the next night during a CNN town hall.

Brazile's role as a CNN contributor was suspended when she took over as interim DNC head in July, but on Oct. 14, in light of the email revelations, CNN said it accepted her full resignation.

COMMENT:  Media corruption is one of the most important issues facing us, although the media would love to file it away.  A free press is critical to a functioning democracy and a free people.  If the press is corrupt, the decisions of the electorate will be corrupt.  And democratic government dies.

October 31, 2016       Permalink

THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY...WELL, THE UGLY – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:  Do you recall any election in which both candidates were so disliked?  I mean, we've had characters like Dick Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill ("I did not have sex...") Clinton, and they weren't as disliked. 

Who's running this year?  Bonnie and Clyde.

From the Washington Post: 

Registered voters see Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a nearly identical negative light, mirroring a persistently close split in overall vote preference in a new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters have an unfavorable impression of Clinton (59 percent), and an identical percentage see Trump negatively. Nearly half of registered voters, 47 percent, have a "strongly unfavorable" view of Clinton and Trump alike.

The parity in basic popularity undermines a key advantage for Clinton throughout most of a presidential campaign where Trump set records as most unpopular presidential candidate in polling history. Clinton's ratings were consistently negative, but were only rarely as troubled as her opponent.

Vote preferences among likely voters continue to be closely divided in the Post-ABC Tracking Poll, with Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 45 percent, the same split as the previous wave reported Sunday. In a two-way matchup excluding third-party candidates, voters split 49-47 between Clinton and Trump; the margin was 49-46 percent in the previous daily tracking poll.

COMMENT:  You'd think we could do better.  Next Tuesday we will elect a president who will be instantly despised by most of the American people.  What an accomplishment. 

Of course, if it's Clinton, the media will start a major makeover.  She's wonderful.  She's brilliant.  She's Mother Courage.  She's misunderstood.  If it's Trump, the media will, after being treated for shock, announce that the public was fooled, and that the "flyover people" shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway. 

There is a Chinese curse:  "May you live in interesting times."  The times are getting a little too interesting.

October 31, 2016       Permalink

NO STUNNERS YET – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  We're starting a little late this morning because I've been checking as many sources as possible to determine the political damage to Hillary Clinton from Friday's FBI announcement.

The verdict:  Incomplete.  Some of the trackers don't poll over the weekends.  This is not due to vacation envy.   Lifestyles change on weekends and some pollsters feel they're not getting an accurate picture.  Most trackers are rolling polls that reflect three days of surveys.  So, some of the trackers published this morning reflect Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week.  The FBI announcement was made late Friday.  We won't get a full picture of the impact, if any, for another few days, when all the polling takes account of the FBI's statement.

However, there has been some impact in overall polling already, reflecting not only the FBI story but Hillary Clinton's general deterioration in the days before Friday's announcement.  The RealClearPolitics average of polls stands this morning at Clinton up 2.9%.  She had been up by 5-6% early last week.  We're now within the margin of error.  The easy victory isn't so easy any longer.

We'll track each day until the election.  If the present trend continues, do not be shocked if the average of polls shows a dead heat on election day.  Or maybe a slight Trump lead.  (Of course, if there's one person who can blow his advantage in the final days, it's Donald Trump.  They've got to keep him scripted and on meds.)

The key will be turnout.  Who will vote?  Who will decide to stay home?  Richard Nixon won the presidency in 1968 because a number of Democrats stayed home, in protest against the Vietnam War. 

Is anybody happy?

October 31,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 30,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

ANOTHER BRIGHT SPOT GONE – FROM THE NEW YORK DAILY NEWS:  The days of cheap gas in New Jersey are coming to an end.  A major increase in the gas tax in the Garden State will go into effect Tuesday, raising the tax from 14.5 cents per gallon to 37.5 cents.  Republican Gov. Chris Christie and the Democratic-controlled Legislature agreed to the hike because the state had run out of cash to pay for transportation projects.  The 23-cent jump is the first increase in New Jersey’s gas tax since 1988. It had the second lowest fuel tax in the nation after Alaska, but will now have the sixth-highest.  Why do I think this isn't progress?  New Jersey has been a gasoline Mecca.  The market worked and brought plenty of people over the state line to buy gasoline, and then maybe check out other New Jersey shops and malls.  Now that will be destroyed.   Many businesses will go with it.  Good government at work.

THE PRESIDENT'S HOME TOWN – FROM CBS LOCAL:    CBS) — At least 14 people were killed and 38 others have been wounded in shootings across Chicago since Friday evening.  The weekend’s latest homicide happened about 3:15 a.m. Sunday in the Old Town neighborhood on the Near North Side. Two 17-year-old boys were standing outside in the 1300 block of North Hudson, when a dark-colored vehicle drove by and someone inside opened fire, according to Chicago Police.   One teenager was shot in the chest and back and taken to Northwestern Memorial Hospital, where he was pronounced dead. The other boy suffered gunshot wounds to the chest and head and was also taken to Northwestern, where he was listed in critical condition.  About 15 minutes earlier, a 19-year-old man was killed and a 40-year-old man was wounded in a Near West Side shooting.   And no one seems interested.  What a comment on our society.

"HIGHER" EDUCATION – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   An NYU professor crusading against political correctness and student coddling was booted from the classroom last week after his colleagues complained about his “incivility,” The Post has learned.  Liberal studies prof Michael Rectenwald, 57, said he was forced Wednesday to go on paid leave for the rest of the semester.  “They are actually pushing me out the door for having a different perspective,” the academic told The Post.  Rectenwald launched an undercover Twitter account called Deplorable NYU Prof on Sept. 12 to argue against campus trends like “safe spaces,” “trigger warnings” and other aspects of academia’s growing PC culture.  He chose to be anonymous, he explained in one of his first tweets, because he was afraid “the PC Gestapo would ruin me” if he put his name ­behind his conservative ideas on the famously liberal campus.  What an example to set for our children.  The stench of fascism is in the air.  It would be nice to see some outrage over this in the mainstream media, but don't hold your breath.

October 30, 2016       Permalink

A KEY PRIZE – AT 1:16 P.M. ET:  Florida is one of the major prizes in this year's election.  Donald Trump has gotten some good news about his prospects there.  From the New York Post: 

Donald Trump is beating Hillary Clinton by four points in the crucial battleground state of Florida, according to a newly released poll.

The New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll shows Trump receiving the support of 46 percent of likely Florida voters, while Clinton is at 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is at 4 percent, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2 percent.

The poll shows Clinton leading women by a 7-percentage point lead (previously she had a ten point lead), while Trump has grown his lead among men to 18 points (previously it was 9).

Among white voters, Trump has a massive lead, 58 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent. But Clinton has a significant edge with black voters (81 percent to 11 percent) and Hispanics/Latinos (59 percent to 30 percent).

“Both Trump and Clinton continue to hold tremendous leads with voters from their own party but self- identified independents have moved from leaning to Trump by two points to now giving the Republican a twelve point advantage as support for Johnson has been cut in half,” said Siena College pollster Don Levy.

COMMENT:  This election is clearly turning into a horse race, although we still have more than a week to go, and we don't know what new bombshells will burst...on either campaign.  But there are clear indications of progress for Trump.  Now the question is whether he can be disciplined as the campaign winds down.

October 30, 2016        Permalink

SILLY! – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:   The Dems are out claiming, in tones approaching hysteria, that FBI Director James Comey should be drawn and quartered because he broke Justice Department protocol Friday by commenting on an ongoing investigation, and sending a letter to Congress revealing that new e-mails had been found that might relate to Clinton World, which is not a vacation getaway in Florida.  But wait.  Did Comey actually break protocol?  No, says John Hinderaker at Powerline:

More to the point, however, Comey did not, in the first instance, make public comment on a pending investigation. While the investigation was going on, the FBI remained silent. It was when the investigation was over and the decision had been made not to charge Mrs. Clinton that Comey publicly explained, and then was called before a Congressional committee to testify about, his rationale.

That action, which was publicly applauded by the Democrats, led directly to Thursday’s communication with Congressional committee chairmen. Comey wrote to tell them that his testimony, under oath, that the Clinton investigation had been concluded was no longer accurate, in view of the newly-discovered emails.

One can agree or disagree with Comey’s course of action, but to denounce it as unprecedented meddling in politics, in violation of DOJ policy, is, in my view, silly.

COMMENT:   Yes, it is silly.  The director acted appropriately.   Just as important, he acted independently.  We now see the value in the statute that gives the FBI director a ten-year term, not subject to political interference.

The story is still developing.  This will be a fascinating nine days, culminating in a presidential election.

October 30, 2016       Permalink

THE IMPACT – AT 11:22 A.M. ET:  We're starting to see the first impact of the FBI story on the presidential campaign.  From The Hill: 

Donald Trump has surged to within 1 point of Hillary Clinton in a national poll released Sunday morning.

Clinton leads Trump, 46 percent to 45 percent, in a four-way race including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Johnson has 4 percent support, while Stein has 2 percent.

Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, led Trump by 12 points in that poll, 50 percent to 38 percent, early last week.

Clinton leads Trump, the Republican nominee, by 3 points in a head-to-head matchup in the new poll, 49 percent to 47 percent.

About a third of all likely voters said they are less likely to support the Democratic nominee in light of news that the FBI is investigating more emails connected to Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of State, ABC News noted. Seven percent of Clinton supporters say the new review makes them less likely to support her.

More than half of likely voters, 60 percent, expect Clinton will become the next president. She is seen as more qualified than the billionaire by an 18-point margin. She has a narrower 8-point edge over Trump on the question of which candidate has a stronger moral character.

The candidates are separated by only 3 points when likely voters are asked which candidate better understands “the problems of people like you,” with 46 percent of likely voters saying it’s Clinton and 43 percent selecting Trump.

The poll of 1,160 likely voters, conducted Oct. 25–28, has a margin of error of 3 points.

COMMENT:  Please note the dates of the poll.  The announcement by FBI Director James Comey that new e-mails possibly relating to the probe into Hillary Clinton have been found was made on the 28th, Friday.  So that announcement impacted only one day of the three-day poll.  It's possible that greater impact will be seen in poll results announced over the next two or three days.

October 30,  2016     Permalink